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I tried to make AI writing sound more human with logit_bias, an API setting that changes how likely a model is to…
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Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost its Faith
In 2013, a failing founder posted their story on Hacker News (link). The responses were overwhelmingly supportive: "Failure is just an event, not who you are." "Get back up and try again!" "This is valuable experience for next time."
Fast forward to 2025. Another founder shares their journey of six failed attempts (link). The sentiment in the comments is strikingly different: "Would have been better to work at BigTech." "The rat race isn't worth it." "Most interesting stories remain buried while we're presented with a somewhat skewed reality."
This shift isn't isolated to these two posts. The same forum that championed "fail fast, fail often" now regularly questions whether the startup path makes sense at all.
What's changed?
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The human cost has become more visible. Stories of burnout, failed relationships, and mental health struggles are no longer swept under the rug of "hustle culture."
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Big Tech compensation has transformed the risk-reward equation. When senior engineers can make $300K+ at established companies, the financial argument for startups becomes harder to justify.
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The VC model's limitations have become apparent. The focus on hypergrowth and exits has left many founders feeling trapped between authentic business building and investor expectations.
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The industry has matured. The low-hanging fruit of the mobile/web era has largely been picked, making truly innovative opportunities harder to find.
I believe we're entering what might be called a "Startup Winter" - not because startups have stopped being created, but because the mythology around them has frozen over.
What might emerge from this winter could be a startup ecosystem that's less glamorous but more authentic. One where alternative paths to innovation are celebrated alongside the traditional VC-backed route.
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Late stage capitalism happened. Society always come to this times when billionares keep pushing, it was written 150 years ago, it’s the same formula always
5. People got older. Many of us are now middle-aged guys with a mortgage and 2 kids.
These are some good thoughts! Hopefully the “startup winter” will yield some great innovations with a focus on sustainability and not just profit.
Competition is increasingly unsustainable in the age of AI.
Seriously, where are the thinkers at?
Don’t they realization collaboration is the path forward for the betterment of humanity?
Just the lack of exits now, especially if you are an employee and not a founder. I worked for a startup in 2011 that exited that year (acquired); and then for another from 2011 that exited in 2013. Exits -> liquidity for early employees. I did well from these. Now (2025) you need to wait until IPO (which is 10+ years from founding these days, instead of 3-5 years 20 years ago), or until the VCs deign to grant you an employee liquidity round (rare, usually only at the very biggest home-run startups, and you will probably be selling your stock at a discount). This lack of liquidity has tanked the financial side of the equation, and the experience you get does not really make up for it, unless you are going to be a founder. Thing is that the universe of founders are tiny, and the universe of people you need to build your company (early employees) are much larger. If those people don’t see the upside anymore, you (and most startups) are toast in terms of getting the talent you need, especially in the deeper tech areas. That being said, you can still (usually) find young (i.e. stupid) but talented new grads, and grind a few years out of them.
That was a nice comparison, and it’s wild to see how much the narrative has changed from 2013 to today. Honestly, I think we’re all going through some kind of evolution with how fast the internet changes everything. It’s like things are moving so quickly, we don’t even know where we’re headed. Maybe in another decade, we’ll look back and see the bigger picture, just like you pointed out.
The startup game isn’t the same as it was 10 years ago. With AI and blockchain tech now in the mix, I think we’re going to see some fresh ideas and new trends pop up. Who knows where it’s all going to lead? Like you said, the VC game has definitely shifted. Maybe it’s time for something different—more authentic projects, not just startups built to sell out to VCs. I’d love to see more bootstrapped and community-driven projects. Even if they don’t make millions, they could still bring real value to millions of people.